Why Reform lost

And how to keep Farage under pressure...

After the endless hype, fawning, and media attention, Reform failed this week to win the Senedd by-election in Caerphilly.

By the looks of things, a surge in turnout was sparked by a poll on 16 October showing Reform with a narrow lead in the seat. In the end, Plaid Cymru won comfortably.

In other words, anti-Farage voters mobilised to keep Reform out.

This is a hugely under-appreciated factor in the story of Reform’s future electoral prospects. The constant talk – drummed up by the right-wing press and amplified by the BBC – of Farage as the next prime minister neglects that he is deeply unpopular.

According to YouGov, 63% of British voters view Farage unfavourably – an even higher percentage than the chronically abhorred Kemi Badenoch (54%).

There’s a vast cohort of people who dislike Farage, and they’re determined to keep him out of Number 10 (and every other institution in which his party is vying for power).

How does that inform how we should deal with Reform?

I think it’s pretty clear.

We need to keep up the pressure and reveal to as many people as possible the toxic features of Farage’s political agenda and his associations.

That’s what I have been doing for years – including in the last week, during which I have exposed the pro-Russian sympathies of his new senior advisor, and the resignation of his DOGE chief – stories barely covered anywhere else.

If you want to fuel further revelations, and hold back Farage at the ballot box, please consider taking out a paid subscription for as little as £29.55 a year.

If you subscribe now, I will dedicate 25% of the income to digital adverts – distributing my Reform investigations to thousands more people. This is something I’ve been trialling over the past couple of weeks – reaching nearly 6,000 new people with the truth.

With your help, I can do even more. Thank you.

“I’ve been really impressed by Sam’s work – persistently finding story after story exposing wrongdoing and hypocrisy at the highest level.”

– Carole Cadwalladr

About me

I’m an investigative journalist who specialises in exposing dark money groups and radical right-wing ecosystems.

I have written for the New York Times, the Guardian, the Mirror, the New European, Novara Media, the New Statesman, Led By Donkeys, and others.

I also write a lot about inequality and elitism, and am the author of two books on those very subjects. I’m an independent, progressive reporter who doesn’t have backing from a billionaire or a corporate backer.

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